Download Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A by Edward Chancellor PDF

By Edward Chancellor

This publication makes use of quite a few examples to illustrate how the capital cycle method of investments works, and the way it has supplied traders with market-beating returns during the last decade.

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Additional resources for Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle: A Money Manager’s Reports 2002-15

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FOCUS ON SUPPLY RATHER THAN DEMAND Given that the future is uncertain, why should Marathon’s approach fare any better? The answer is that most investors spend the bulk of their time trying to forecast future demand for the companies they follow. The aviation analyst will try to answer the question: How many long-haul flights will be taken globally in 2020? A global autos strategist will attempt to forecast China’s demand for passenger cars 15 years hence. No one knows the answers to these questions.

As we have seen, it can take nearly a decade for a new mine to start producing. 3 “This time’s no different” – yet after rebounding in the wake of the financial crisis, the commodity supercycle didn’t turn down for another 20 CAPITAL RETURNS five years. Marathon’s long-term investment discipline, with its very low portfolio turnover, is well suited to applying the capital cycle approach. CAPITAL CYCLE BREAKDOWNS Capital cycle analysis requires patience, a certain doggedness (willingness to be wrong for a long period) and a contrarian mindset.

3 Indeed, mining companies have certainly responded to the pricing situation in the way that one would expect: initially they were sceptical of the price rises, but later they started investing heavily to bring on new supply. Mining exploration costs doubled between 2003 and 2005. Much of this additional spending is a consequence of having to absorb higher production costs, but not all of it. Indeed, some mining companies believe that there is enough supply coming on stream in copper for there to be a sizeable market surplus in a couple of years’ time.

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